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Published 2026-10-25 · follow the money

Follow the Money

The spread stood still. The yields did not.

Compare the short and long ends separately. These are Treasury observations for 2026-10-22 and 2026-10-23, not a live intraday feed.

THE SHAPE OF THE MOVE

The same curve. Two dated observations.

Three selected maturities, two dated Treasury observations. Lines connect observations as a visual guide.U.S. Treasury · nominal par yields2026-10-232026-10-224.50%4.75%5.00%5.25%5.50%4.69%5.00%5.33%2-year10-year30-yearSelected maturities. Connecting lines are a guide, not a fitted forward-rate curve.
Exact yield observations and changes
Maturity2026-10-222026-10-23Change, bp
2-year4.65%4.69%4
10-year4.96%5.00%4
30-year5.29%5.33%4

Source: U.S. Treasury daily par yield curve. Dates identify observations; these are not intraday quotes. 1 basis point = 0.01 percentage point. Read the source and qualification below.

Reported fact

On 2026-10-23, Treasury reported par yields of 4.69% at 2 years, 5% at 10 years and 5.33% at 30 years. The comparison observation is 2026-10-22. [1]

Nexural calculation

The 10-year minus 2-year spread was 31 basis points, versus 31 basis points: a change of 0 basis points. The 2-year yield changed 4 basis points; the 10-year changed 4 basis points; the 30-year changed 4 basis points. [1]

Interpretation

A spread combines two moving parts. Inspecting both ends tells us which observed yield change contributed to the slope change; it does not establish why either yield moved. [1]

What we would check next

Check the next Treasury observation, the release calendar and independent inflation or policy evidence before assigning a cause to the move.

Inspect the sources and methods 1 source record
  1. U.S. Treasury daily par yield curve

    Rows 2026-10-22 and 2026-10-23; 2-year, 10-year and 30-year par yields; retained observation ev_822ad22ba8291233e0565614

    us-treasury · daily-treasury-par-yield-curve · verified

    Source reference

Revision 1 · 6f1d969c779a. Source records and hashes establish traceability; editorial review must establish what the evidence supports.

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