The desk decides what’s worth your size.
A live ranked board of every viable setup across futures, equities, and crypto. Each candidate is regime-gated, gauntlet-tested, and scored with the same composite-z used inside the SageQuant research stack. No signals. No alerts. Just the trades that pass.
- 412candidates / day
- 97.4%filtered out
- 5srefresh tick
| sym | setup | regime | bias | score | side |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ES | POC bounce | trend·long | +0.82σ | 94 | long |
| NQ | Demand zone | trend·long | +0.74σ | 92 | long |
| CL | VAL bounce | vol·rising | +0.61σ | 89 | long |
| GC | Naked POC | trend·long | +0.41σ | 84 | watch |
| RTY | Supply rejection | rotation | −0.12σ | 78 | watch |
| BTC | ORB | regime·shift | −0.34σ | 72 | skip |
| AAPL | Gap fill | rotation | −0.08σ | 68 | watch |
real layout · sample data · gauntlet ✓
The three problems a real desk solves.
If you've traded long enough you already know these. The Swing Desk closes them as code, not as advice.
- 01the watchlist problem
Too many tickers, too little signal.
Most retail tools surface every chart with a hammer pattern and call it a setup. Real desks scan thousands of names, then publish a shortlist. We replicate the shortlist — the AI Nexural Swing Desk filters 400+ candidates a session into seven that actually pass.
97.4%filtered out - 02the regime problem
Setups don't work in every regime.
A demand-zone bounce is gold in trend·long, garbage in regime·shift. Without a regime gate, you take the same playbook into every tape and wonder why your hit rate decays. The desk flips state with the market — long candidates literally stop printing when the HMM trips.
6regime states - 03the conviction problem
Knowing what's good isn't sizing what's good.
When five names look identical, traders pick at random. The desk ranks them by composite-z — a single number combining regime fit, setup quality, location, and risk — so you know which one deserves full size and which one deserves a starter.
1rankable score
412 candidates in. 7 trades out. Five stages.
The same pipeline runs every five seconds. Nothing in the path is optional. Nothing in the path is hidden.
- step 00ingest
Universe scan
Tick-level prints across futures, equities, and crypto, plus the active fundamentals frame. Same data feed that powers the dashboard charts.
in raw ticks412 candidates - step 01regime gate
Regime fit filter
An HMM tags the live regime (trend·long, vol·rising, rotation, …). Setups whose historical edge is < 0 in the current regime are dropped on the spot.
in 412168 - step 02score
Composite-z scoring
Each surviving setup is scored on regime fit, setup quality, location, risk-clarity, and historical edge. Z-normalized so a 92 in NQ means the same thing as a 92 in CL.
in 168168 scored - step 03rank
Composite ranking
Names are sorted by composite-z, then capped per-symbol so you don't see five flavors of the same trade. Result: one ordered shortlist, every session.
in 168 scored12 ranked - step 04action
Side & size hint
Each ranked candidate gets an action — long, short, watch, or skip — plus a starter size suggestion based on your account profile. You decide if the trigger fires.
in 12 ranked7 actionable
Composite-z, decomposed. Five inputs. Published weights.
The number on the desk is a weighted sum of five components, normalized so a 92 in NQ means the same thing as a 92 in CL. Here are the weights.
- regime_fitRegime fit
Does this setup historically edge in the live regime? Pulled from a 5-year rolling window of regime-tagged outcomes for the same setup family.
30%weightexample·Demand-zone bounce + trend·long → +0.82σ edge - setup_qualitySetup quality
How clean is the structural pattern itself — touch count, rejection wick magnitude, volume confirmation, time spent in zone. A model graded on labeled examples.
25%weightexample·POC bounce, 3 prior touches, vol-spike on entry → 0.91 - locationLocation
Where the price is relative to value — distance from VPOC, proximity to HVN/LVN, pivot context. Trades closer to high-conviction levels score higher.
20%weightexample·Entry within 0.4 ATR of session VPOC → 0.78 - risk_clarityRisk clarity
Is the invalidation level obvious? A wide invalidation, or a fuzzy one, drags this component down even when everything else is clean.
15%weightexample·Stop within 1 ATR · R:R ≥ 2.5 → 0.82 - edge_persistenceEdge persistence
How stable has this setup's edge been across the gauntlet — DSR, PBO, WFE, SPA. A high score here means it didn't decay in walk-forward.
10%weightexample·DSR 0.71 · PBO 0.18 · WFE 0.62 · SPA p<0.05 → 0.74
Six regimes. Six different playbooks.
An HMM tags the live tape. The desk re-weights its candidate set every five seconds based on what the market is actually doing right now — not what it was doing yesterday.
- trend·longstate
Trend, long-side
Higher highs, expanding ATR, breadth confirms. Trend setups carry edge.
enables- Demand-zone bounce
- POC continuation
- Pullback to VWAP
disables- Mean-reversion shorts
- Range fades
- trend·shortstate
Trend, short-side
Lower lows, broadening, breadth weak. Short setups carry edge.
enables- Supply-zone rejection
- Lower-high fail
- Bear flag continuation
disables- Long breakouts
- Demand-zone bounces
- rotationstate
Rotation
Range-bound, mean-reverting, ATR compressed. Edges are tactical.
enables- VAL/VAH fades
- Range mean-reversion
- ORB fade
disables- Trend-continuation longs
- Breakout chases
- vol·risingstate
Vol, rising
Realized vol expanding faster than implied. Risk widens, sizing shrinks.
enables- Breakout follow-through
- Gap-and-go
disables- Tight-stop scalps
- Low-vol mean-reversion
- vol·crushstate
Vol, crushing
Realized < implied, mean reverting fast. Premium-selling regime.
enables- Premium-selling structures
- Tight-stop continuations
disables- Breakout chases
- Vol-expansion plays
- regime·shiftstate
Regime shift
Statistical regime changing. Historical edge no longer applies.
enables- Nothing. The desk goes flat.
disables- Every prior playbook until the new regime stabilizes
What you’re actually paying for. Five surfaces, one cockpit.
The desk is built around a single screen. No hopping tabs, no losing the candidate while you check the chart. Here is the layout, annotated.
| sym | setup | score | side |
|---|---|---|---|
| ES | POC bounce | 94 | long |
| NQ | Demand zone | 92 | long |
| CL | VAL bounce | 89 | long |
| GC | Naked POC | 84 | watch |
| RTY | Supply rejection | 78 | watch |
real layout · annotated · sample data
- 01Filter strip
Score floor, regime exclusions, horizon, and account-aware risk caps. Every preset is shareable as a URL.
- 02Ranked candidate table
Each row is a candidate that passed the gauntlet. Sortable columns, side chip, composite-z bar.
- 03Detail panel
Click a row to expand: live chart, score breakdown, similar historical setups, and the trade plan template.
- 04Session planner
Drag candidates into your plan. The desk persists it to the journal so tomorrow's review starts with last night's intent.
- 05Live regime band
Always visible. Tells you the active state and how long it has been in force.
What it isn’t. In writing.
If any of these would have been a deal-breaker, better to find out here than after a refund.
- It's not a signal service.
We do not push you trades. The desk ranks; you decide. There is no chat-room "BTO NQ at 22184" message.
- It's not auto-execution.
No order routing. No broker integration that fires fills on your behalf. Sizing is a hint; pulling the trigger is yours.
- It's not a black box.
The composite-z weights are public, the regime model is documented, and the gauntlet (DSR · PBO · WFE · SPA) runs on every release.
- It's not institutional-grade indicators with marketing copy.
It's a single ranking pipeline. The institutional-grade indicators feed it — they aren't the product, they're the inputs.
- It's not a guarantee.
Past performance does not predict the future. The desk reduces noise. It cannot protect you from a bad regime call or your own sizing.
Questions people actually ask.
If yours isn't here, email sage@nexural.io and we'll add it.
- Most retail scoring stacks one indicator on top of another and normalizes at the end. Composite-z is a weighted sum of five z-normalized components — regime fit, setup quality, location, risk clarity, and edge persistence — refit quarterly on out-of-sample data. The weights and the refit history are published in the changelog.
- Yes. The candidate universe spans futures, US equities, and the major spot crypto pairs. The same pipeline runs on each — the regime model is asset-class aware, so an equity setup is graded against an equity-regime tape, not a futures-regime one.
- The ranked board ticks every five seconds on the production tier. The regime classifier re-evaluates each minute. Composite-z weights are re-fit quarterly; refits ship behind a feature flag and are announced on the changelog.
- Yes — the production weights are the default, but Pro and Automation accounts can clone the formula and override any component weight. Cloned formulas run alongside the default so you see both rankings side by side.
- Regimes mis-classify; that’s why we publish the transition log. When the live regime is mid-flip, the desk widens its score thresholds and biases toward ‘watch’ over ‘long’ or ‘short’. You won’t see a full long set in regime·shift even if the prior state was trend·long.
- No. There is no broker integration that fires orders for you. The desk produces ranked candidates with a recommended side and a starter size; you place the trade. This is intentional — see the anti-pitch.
- Yes. It’s the same family of overfit-resistance tests institutional desks run before deploying a strategy. We publish the gauntlet result on every released indicator and on the composite formula itself, so you can audit whether what shipped held up out of sample.
Where this fits in the system.
Every surface compounds the others. The Swing Desk feeds the journal. The journal grounds Sage AI. Sage AI cites the indicators. The indicators feed QuantFlow.
- journal
Event-sourced journal
Every Swing Desk pick that becomes a trade flows here — entry, exit, regime context, composite-z at the time of the call. Replayable.
→ /journal - indicators
Composite-z inputs
The five components driving the rank — momentum, vol-shape, flow, breadth, regime fit — are all institutional-grade indicators in their own right.
→ /indicators - sage-ai
Sage AI copilot
Ask the desk why a name is on the board. Get a cited answer that pulls from the regime, your past trades, and the live composite breakdown.
→ /sage-ai
Stop scanning. Start trading what already passes.
The AI Nexural Swing Desk is included on the Pro tier at $47/mo. Seven-day money-back, no retention call. If it isn’t making your prep faster, full refund — we’d rather keep the relationship than the $47.