The rules behind every number
How we keep score
Every number we publish, what it means, and exactly how we work it out. The examples below use today's real numbers, pulled from the same place as the rest of the site.
We keep two records, and we never mix them: the real trades of Jason Teixeira (known in the community as Sage) in his own account, and the Hypothetical result What a trade idea would have made or lost at real market prices, even though no real order was placed. More plain-English terms results of our engine's trade ideas.
Two records
Real vs. hypothetical
| Question | Trade log · real | Proof · hypothetical |
|---|---|---|
| Whose trades | Jason's personal Robinhood account | Trade ideas posted by the Nexural engine |
| Real money? | Yes — real orders he placed himself | No — nobody placed these trades |
| Measured in | Dollars (realized profit and loss) | R — multiples of the amount each idea risked |
| When a trade counts | When a position is sold (a closing trade) | When price reaches the entry; it closes at the stop or the target |
| Fees and fills | As Robinhood reports the realized result | None — no commissions, slippage or real fills |
| Left out | Open positions and unrealized gains or losses | Ideas that never reached the entry, and ideas still open |
| Updated | When Jason refreshes the file (as of Sep 28, 2026) | About every 5 minutes, from the database |
| Anything removed? | No — every closing trade in the account's history | No — every idea stays, wins and losses |
| Where | /trade-log | /proof |
Real money · dollars
The trade log's numbers
Every number on the trade log, the home page and the About page. Examples are as of Sep 28, 2026.
- Closing trade The sale that ends a trade. Its result is locked in the moment it closes. More plain-English terms
- Every time Jason sells a position, that sale is one closing trade.
- Exactly: One row per closing sell in the account, plus broker adjustments (Robinhood closing a fractional share or cleaning up after a corporate action, with no sell order). Buys and positions that are still open are not rows.
- Right now there are 134 rows: 131 sells and 3 broker adjustments.
- Wins, losses and breakeven
- A win made money, a loss lost money, and breakeven made exactly $0.
- Exactly: Win = a closing sell with realized profit above $0. Loss = below $0. Breakeven = exactly $0. Broker adjustments are none of these.
- 85 wins, 46 losses and 0 breakeven sells.
- Win rate The share of closed trades that made money. A 40% win rate means 4 out of 10 trades were winners. More plain-English terms
- Out of every trade that won or lost, the share that won.
- Exactly: Wins ÷ (wins + losses), rounded to a whole percent. Breakeven sells and broker adjustments are left out.
- 85 ÷ (85 + 46) = 85 ÷ 131 = 65%.
- Average win What the typical winning trade made: all the money made on winning trades, divided by the number of winning trades. More plain-English terms
- What a typical winning trade made.
- Exactly: All the money made on winning sells ÷ the number of winning sells.
- $526,141 ÷ 85 wins = $6,190.
- Average loss What the typical losing trade lost: all the money lost on losing trades, divided by the number of losing trades. More plain-English terms
- What a typical losing trade lost.
- Exactly: All the money lost on losing sells ÷ the number of losing sells.
- $73,414 ÷ 46 losses = $1,596 lost per losing trade.
- Win/loss ratio
- How many times bigger the average win is than the average loss.
- Exactly: Average win ÷ the size of the average loss, to one decimal. We say it as "the average win is N× the average loss".
- $6,190 ÷ $1,596 = 3.9×. So the average win is 3.9× the average loss.
- Profit per trade The average result of every closed trade, wins and losses together. If it is above zero, the trades made money on average. More plain-English terms
- What a trade made on average, once wins and losses are added together.
- Exactly: Net realized profit from all closing sells ÷ the number of closing sells. Traders call this "expectancy". Broker adjustments are left out.
- +$452,726 ÷ 131 sells = +$3,456 per trade.
- Realized P&L Profit or loss that is locked in because the trade was closed. Trades that are still open are not counted. More plain-English terms
- Every locked-in result added up — the money actually made or lost on closed trades.
- Exactly: The sum of realized profit and loss on every row, broker adjustments included. Open positions and paper gains are not included.
- +$452,606 across all 134 rows, as of Sep 28, 2026.
- Losing streak Losing trades in a row, one after another, with no win in between. More plain-English terms
- The most losing trades in a row, with no win in between.
- Exactly: Closing sells in the order they closed; a win or a $0 sell ends a streak; broker adjustments are skipped. If two streaks are the same length, we show the one that lost more.
- 12 losses in a row, Feb 19, 2026 to Mar 4, 2026, together −$23,963.
- Drawdown How far an account falls from its highest point before it recovers. It shows how rough the bad stretches get. More plain-English terms
- The biggest drop of the running total from a high point to a later low point.
- Exactly: Add up realized P&L one closing trade at a time, starting at $0. After each trade, drawdown = running total − the highest running total so far. Max drawdown is the most negative value. It is in dollars, not percent, because the log does not include the account balance.
- From +$75,877 on Feb 19, 2026 down to +$47,086 on Apr 8, 2026: −$28,790. Back above the old high by Apr 14, 2026.
- Best and worst month
- The calendar months that made the most and the least.
- Exactly: Realized P&L of every row, grouped by the calendar month it closed in. Months with no closed trades are skipped.
- Best: Sep 2026, +$136,619 over 26 trades. Worst: Dec 2024, −$1,845 over 1 trade.
The same numbers, as charts
Running realized P&L
Closed trades only · May 2, 2024 → Sep 28, 2026
Drawdown from the high
How far the running total sat below its best level so far
Deepest: −$28,790 · Feb 19, 2026 → Apr 8, 2026
How big each trade's result was
131 closing sells, grouped by dollars made or lost
Thick bar = number of trades · thin bar = dollars made or lost
Month by month
Realized P&L per calendar month · red = losing month
| Month | Realized | Closing trades |
|---|---|---|
| May 2024 | +$66 | 1 |
| Aug 2024 | −$1,665 | 2 |
| Nov 2024 | +$3,942 | 6 |
| Dec 2024 | −$1,845 | 1 |
| Mar 2025 | +$307 | 2 |
| Jul 2025 | +$23 | 2 |
| Sep 2025 | +$6,541 | 5 |
| Oct 2025 | +$8,099 | 7 |
| Nov 2025 | −$120 | 3 |
| Jan 2026 | −$955 | 4 |
| Feb 2026 | +$40,608 | 16 |
| Mar 2026 | −$1,617 | 9 |
| Apr 2026 | +$32,743 | 5 |
| May 2026 | +$50 | 3 |
| Jun 2026 | +$52,974 | 10 |
| Jul 2026 | +$72,619 | 16 |
| Aug 2026 | +$104,217 | 16 |
| Sep 2026 | +$136,619 | 26 |
Jason's personal Robinhood account — realized P&L only, mostly leveraged ETFs at high risk. One person's results: not typical, not a prediction of yours, and not a guarantee. As of Sep 28, 2026 · trading is risky · not financial advice. Jason and the Nexural team trade their own accounts and may hold, buy, or sell any security we discuss, including before, during, or after we post about it. Our posts show our trades; they are not a recommendation for you.
Hypothetical · measured in R
The trade-idea numbers
Every number on /proof and the home page stat strip. Trade ideas are measured in R, not dollars, because nobody put money on them.
- R The amount risked on one trade idea: the distance from the entry to the stop. +2R means the idea made twice what it risked; −1R means it lost exactly what it risked.
- R is how much an idea risks: the gap between its entry price and its stop.
- Exactly: 1R = entry − stop (per share, for a long idea). A result in R = what the idea made or lost per share ÷ 1R. +2R made twice what it risked; −1R lost exactly what it risked.
- Illustration, not a real idea: entry $50, stop $48, so 1R = $2 a share. Out at $55 = +$5 = +2.5R. Out at the $48 stop = −1R.
- Hit rate The share of closed trade ideas that made money. It is the same idea as a win rate.
- Out of every closed idea, the share that made money.
- Exactly: Ideas that closed above 0R ÷ all closed ideas. Unlike the trade log's win rate, an idea that closed at exactly 0R stays in the count.
- 1,343 ÷ 3,482 closed ideas = 38.6%.
- Average win and average loss, in R
- What a typical winning idea made, and a typical losing idea lost, in units of risk.
- Exactly: The average R of the winning closed ideas, and the average R of the losing closed ideas.
- Average win +2.59R, average loss −1.01R. So the average win is 2.6× the average loss.
- Expectancy The quant word for profit per trade: the average result of every closed trade, wins and losses together.
- What an idea made on average, wins and losses together, in units of risk.
- Exactly: Total R of all closed ideas ÷ the number of closed ideas.
- +1320.7R ÷ 3,482 = +0.38R per idea.
Hypothetical results from our trade ideas, scored against market prices. Nobody traded them. They include no commissions, slippage, or real fills and have real limitations. Past results don't predict future results.
Where the data comes from
Sources and rules
The trade log (real)
- Source: Jason's personal Robinhood account, read-only export. Every closing trade in the account's history.
- Only realized profit and loss counts — closed trades. Open positions and unrealized gains or losses are not included.
- Avg cost and Return % are worked out from Robinhood's realized result: avg cost = (exit × shares − realized) ÷ shares. So they are approximate.
- Broker adjustments are shown and count in the totals, but never as a win or a loss.
- It is refreshed when Jason updates the file. Current as of Sep 28, 2026.
- Nothing is removed. Losses are shown exactly like wins.
Proof (hypothetical)
- Source: every trade idea the Nexural engine posted (not ideas written by members), scored against market prices.
- An idea is one setup: the same stock, direction, strategy, entry, stop and target. If the engine posts the same setup again later, it counts once — the first post.
- An idea becomes a trade only when price reaches its entry. It closes when price hits the stop or the target.
- Closed trades are grouped by the New York date they closed. The totals add up those days, all time — no picked window.
- No commissions, slippage or real fills. Nobody traded these ideas.
- The page refreshes from the database about every 5 minutes. Nothing is removed.
What members say
How we use testimonials
Real messages from free Discord members, wording trimmed for length, numbers unchanged. Hand-picked and not typical — most traders lose money. Some quoted members are long-time community members and may have a role or free access in the server.
Read the testimonialsThree free steps
New to trading? Start here.
- Step 01
Take the free first course
The Academy's Foundations course assumes you know nothing yet. It covers how markets work and how to learn them, step by step.
Open the free course - Step 02
Read the Handbook
How the community works, what we post, and how to read a trade. The best first read.
Open the Handbook - Step 03
Watch us trade, free
Join the Discord, read the daily brief, and ask the beginner questions. No question is a dumb one.
Join the free Discord