The account failure probability, not just the expectancy.
Positive expectancy does not mean zero risk of ruin. This calculator estimates how likely the account is to fail given win rate, payoff ratio, and how much is risked per trade.
Risk of ruin
Low modeled failure probability at these inputs. Verify the win rate and payoff ratio are realistic, not optimistic.
The tool should change the next decision, not just return a number.
Each free tool is built as a small diagnostic. It gives the visitor a usable result, then points them toward the cockpit workflow where the same idea becomes saved history and review discipline.
Risk of ruin
Use the output as a review prompt, not a signal.
- This normalizes expectancy into an edge between -1 and +1, then applies the classical gambler's-ruin formula raised to the number of risk units in the account (100 / risk%). It reduces to the textbook p-q formula when payoff ratio = 1.
- Assumptions: independent trade outcomes, fixed % risked per trade of the ORIGINAL capital (not full compounding), and no tail-risk events outside the win/loss model.
- Zero or negative edge (b*p <= q) means modeled risk of ruin is 100% over a long enough run — position sizing cannot fix a negative-expectancy system.
Risk disclosure
This tool is educational. It does not place trades, recommend trades, or know your personal financial situation. Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss.
Reviewed as educational research, not trade advice.
- Author
- Nexural Research Desk
- Reviewer
- Nexural Risk & Automation Review
- Updated
- 2026-05-28
- Primary query
- risk of ruin calculator
The free page is the front door. The cockpit is the operating system.
Free visitors should leave with value even if they never pay. When they want history, AI review, premium desks, or automation context, the dashboard becomes the next logical step.
The dashboard turns calculator output into a repeatable review workflow.
Conversion happens after demonstrated intent, not before value.