Separate trading from investing
A ticker can support a short-term trade and still fail a long-term investment test. Write the horizon before selecting evidence.
| Decision | Primary evidence | Invalidation |
|---|---|---|
| Trade | Structure, location, timing, participation, and defined risk | The setup or price structure fails |
| Investment | Business quality, financial statements, valuation, catalysts, and portfolio fit | The business or valuation thesis fails |
Follow the investment research loop
Move from mandate to monitoring. Do not start with a ticker and search backward for reasons to own it.
- 011 · Mandate
Define horizon, liquidity needs, objectives, and constraints.
- 022 · Business
Understand revenue, margins, cash flow, balance sheet, and competitive position.
- 033 · Value
Compare price with earnings, cash generation, growth, and realistic scenarios.
- 044 · Catalyst
Name what could close the gap and when new evidence should arrive.
- 055 · Downside
Model failure, drawdown, dilution, leverage, and thesis invalidation.
- 066 · Portfolio
Check concentration, correlation, liquidity, and total exposure.
- 077 · Size
Choose exposure from downside and portfolio limits, not excitement.
- 088 · Review
Update the thesis when evidence changes, not because price is noisy.
Write an investment thesis
A complete thesis makes both the opportunity and the failure case visible.
Company / asset and intended horizon:
What the business does and why customers pay:
Revenue, margin, cash-flow, and balance-sheet trend:
Valuation range and assumptions:
Base / upside / downside scenario:
Catalysts and evidence dates:
Thesis risks and invalidation:
Portfolio overlap and liquidity:
Reason to buy, wait, reduce, or pass: